02 Nov 2011 – Daily Monitoring Report
Key Headlines:
- Somali premier Abdiweliweli Gaas expresses sorrow about Kenyan air strike on civilians
- UN envoy calls for African peacekeeping force to reach full strength
- Somali defence minister Hussein Arab goes to lower Jubba region
- 900 TFG soldiers arrived from training in Uganda while 600 others departed for training
- Aid workers’ kidnappers escape from central Somali jail
- 70 women in rebel custody for failing to meet its dress code
- Fertile territory for al Shabaab in chaos of Somalia
- Al Shabaab apprehends ‘spy’ youths in Bardere Gedo region
- RDF dismisses talk of Somalia deployment
- “Eritrean” arms delivered to Somali Islamists says Kenyan report
- Somali President off to Kampala for security talks
SOMALI MEDIA
Somali premier, Abdiweliweli Gaas expresses sorrow about Kenyan air strike on civilians
02 Nov – Source: Mareeg Online, BBC Somali Service – 121 words
Premier of Somali transitional federal government, Abdiweli Mohamed Ali has expressed great sorrow for the civilians killed and injured by Kenyan warplanes in Jilib district of middle Jubba region this week.
Speaking to the BBC Somali Service, Somali prime minister, Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali said that he was very sorry about the Kenyan bombardment against civilians in particular the latest event in Jilib district in which Kenyan warplanes fired on civilians.
Somali premier, Dr. Abdiweli Gaas stated that the TFG would investigate the case saying that Kenyan’s objective was not to target civilians but to eliminate and destroy Al-Shabaab military bases in Jubba regions south Somalia. The Mareeg article refers to the killing of civilians in Jilib as a ‘genocide’.
http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.
Militants killed in a fatal road accident, Bay region
02 Nov – Source: Radio Bar-Kulan – 173 words
At least five militants have died and eight others were seriously injured after a vehicle they were travelling in crashed and rolled several times at Ramo Adey area, 40 km from Dinsor town, Bay region. The Tuesday night accident involved a pick-up-truck ferrying several militants from Baidoa to Kismayo.
The rebel fighters were allegedly reinforcing other militant fighters in Lower Juba where a major battle with Kenyan troops awaits them. The injured militants were immediately rushed to Dinsor hospital to be treated while those killed during the fatal accident were taken to Baidoa for burial. The cause of the accident still remains unclear as there were no official comments from the militia leaders in the region.
Early in September, at least two militants were killed and four others injured in a similar road accident at a village near Qansah-dere town, Bay region. The incident occurred as the militants were traveling to Bardera, Gedo region, where they were trooping up after loosing several towns in the region to the government troops.
Somali defence minister Hussein Arab goes to lower Jubba region
02 Nov – Source: Radio Mogadishu, Bar-Kulan and Mareeg Online – 121 words
Defense Minister of Somali Transitional Federal Government, Hussein Arab Isse, heading other officials, has left from Nairobi, Kenya going to lower Jubba region, southern Somalia.
He is accompanied by Chief Commander of Somali National Army, General A/kadir Sheikh Ali Diini and other members of the TFG.
Mr. Arab is supposed to reach Dhobley, Tabta, Qoqani and frontlines where Somali Transitional Federal Government, Raskamboni troops backed by the Kenyan army were with al Shabaab recently, state media added. This is the first visit that Somali defense minister Hussein Arab pays there since he was nominated to this post.
http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.
Baidoa residents flee their homes near rebel bases
02 Nov – Source: Radio Bar-kulan – 127 words
Residents of Baidoa town in Bay region have started fleeing their homes around Al-Shabaab bases in the area after Kenyan military warned locals from going near rebel bases as such bases will be bombarded. Yesterday evening locals were reportedly seen packing their belonging.
Farha Hassan Ali, a local resident told Bar-kulan that they decided to flee their homes around rebel bases in fear of aerial bombardment similar to that of Jilib on Sunday, where three people were killed and 52 others wounded, mainly children and women.
He said people started fleeing immediately when they heard the Kenyan warning. The Kenyan government warned residents of ten towns in southern Somalia of an imminent air raid, calling them not go near rebel bases in the area.
Aid workers’ kidnappers escape from central Somali jail
02 Nov – Source: Somalia Report, Radio Kulmiye, Shabelle – 126 words
Two men who were recently arrested in southern Galka`yo in connection with the kidnapping of two workers from the Danish De-mining Group escaped from prison late Monday night after a pirate allegedly bribed prison guards, officials said Tuesday.
Ahmad Muhammad Mahmud, Galmudug State Deputy Minister for Internal Security, told Somalia Report the suspects, Abdirisaq Ma’alin Dheere and Ba’adle Sheikh Hussein, escaped after an arrangement between the pirates and prison guards.
“Pirates who are holding the kidnapped foreigners are again involved in this ugly act,” he said. “We condemn it with strongest terms and we will do all we can to secure the release of the hostages. Mr Mahmud said that Galmudug State had been planning to try the two men for their alleged involvement in the abduction.
Al-Shabaab and Ayr sub-clan of Hawiye settled their differences and signed a mutual treaty
01 Nov – Source: Somalia Report, Somali Memo, Radio al Furqaan and Somali Chanel TV – 91 words
After continuous meeting between the Ayr sub-clan of Hawiye clan and al Shabaab, both parties signed an agreement yesterday in Elasha Biyaha village, on the outskirts of Mogadishu. The two sides agreed to end the disagreement, to enforce Islamic law in the clan’s territorial areas and offer forgiveness to the militias within the clan who are in the TFG and Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama`a. The agreement was signed by the al Shabaab’s political and regional relations chairman Sheikh Hussein Ali Fidow while on the Ayr clan’s side it was signed by Ugas Abdi Dahir Nuur.
Puntland bans two TV Stations
01 Nov – Source: Horseed Media, Somalia Report and Hiiraan Online – 74 words
The government of Somalia’s semi-autonomous region of Puntland banned two television stations from operating after accusing them of creating insecurity in the region. The Deputy Minister for Information Abdulahi Mohamed Farah said in a statement: “We have banned Universal TV and Somali Channel TV because they support groups that are against peace and broadcast stories which create insecurity in Puntland. We are informing security officers to enforce our order on these two TV Somali stations”.
70 women in rebel custody for failing to meet its dress code
01 Nov – Source: Radio Bar-Kulan – 193 words
Al-Shabaab rebel group in Beledweyne town has on Tuesday rounded up over 70 women and locked them in for failing to wear heavy veils, reports say. Rebel leaders accused these women of failing to dress according to Islamic teachings and opted to put on short veils instead of long ones.
Heavily armed rebel fighters were reportedly taking part in the swoop. Several women were caught up in the crackdown, unaware. Reports say several children whose mothers were locked in thronged in the rebel station, where their mothers were held.
Al-Shabaab ordered the detainees’ relatives to bring them heavy veils within 24 hours before they are released. The militants threatened to continue holding those whose relatives fail to bring them heavy veils. The group has earlier ordered all women in areas under its jurisdiction to wear veils and cover all their bodies or face punished for neglecting Islamic orders.
In July this year, Al-Shabaab rebel fighters apprehended over 30 women in Afgoye corridor for not heeding their orders. Al-Shabaab said the women broke a rule ordering all women in rebel held areas to wear thick and broad veils when going out of their homes.
900 TFG soldiers arrived from training in Uganda while 600 others departed for training
01 Nov – Source: Radio Mogadishu, Somalia Report, SONNA – 50 words
At least 900 Somali soldiers who spent six months training in Uganda arrived in Mogadishu two days ago. TFG military officials welcomed the force in Aden Adde airport. Another 600 troops left the country for similar training in Uganda and will later join the Somali security forces operating in the country.
Al-Shabaab apprehends ‘spy’ youths in Bardere, Gedo region
02 Nov – Source: Radio Bar-kulan , Kismaayo News, Kulmiye – 131 words
Al-Shabaab rebel group in Bardere town on Tuesday night rounded up five young men and locked them in for allegedly spying on their military activities and having links with Ahlu Sunna group in the region, reports say.
Some of the parents of the detained youths told Bar-kulan that rebel group fighters were illegally keeping their loved ones in custody, rubbishing the allegations against them. They claimed the militia physically assaulted the detainees during their arrests, adding that they are being held in a secret location.
They also alleged that the militia threatened them if they tred to come after the suspects, hindering their efforts to secure the release of their loved ones. Reports say rebel fighters arrested the five youths after they had engaged in a religious debate with some rebel relatives.
REGIONAL MEDIA
“Eritrean” arms delivered to Somali Islamists, says Kenyan report
02 Nov – Source: the Standard – 1130 words
The possible role of Eritrea in supporting Al Shabaab insurgents has come into sharp focus after the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) confirmed that two aircraft landed in Baidoa with a consignment of arms for the rebels. Although KDF did not name the origin of the aircraft, chatter on many Somali Internet sites, quoting Al Shabaab, said they were Eritrean.
Kenya’s military now plans to strike Baidoa and has advised anyone with relatives and friends in the town to warn them of the imminent attack. Hitting Baidoa and taking over the airstrip would cut off one of the key supply routes, apart from Kismayu port, for weapons to the militants.
On Tuesday, The Standard exclusively reported that aircraft suspected to be from Eritrea were spotted on Baidoa’s airstrip on Saturday under tight security from Al Shabaab. Eritrea has been accused of pouring flames on the conflict in Somalia by flying in weapons and explosives to the militants using the airstrip in Baidoa, a town controlled by the militants.
During the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia, Eritrea harboured leaders of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and its military wing, now Al Shabaab, and was accused by the United Nations of supplying them with weapons to fight a proxy war against Ethiopia.
On Tuesday, a member of Somalia’s Parliament, Mr Mahamud Abdulla, told a Somali news agency website that he witnessed over 10 vehicles from Baidoa airstrip enter a building in the area over the weekend. He said Al Shabaab informants told him the weapons included heavy artillery and explosives.
In his daily briefing notes for the media, military spokesperson Major Emmanuel Chirchir, in addition to Baidoa, warned residents of Badhere, Baidoa, Dinsur, Afgoye, Bu’ale, Barawe, Jilib, Kismayu and Afmadow to beware and avoid being used as conduits for the weapons.
http://www.standardmedia.co.
Somali President off to Kampala for security talks
01 Nov – Source: Africa Review – 183 words
Somalia’s President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed left Mogadishu for Kampala Tuesday for a meeting with Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni. President Sharif was accompanied by a number of ministers and legislators.
Mr Sutan Ahmed, the head of the presidential information department, told the media that the visit was about security in Somalia and in the eastern Africa region. “How to execute the second phase of the offensive against Al-Shabaab will dominate the talks,” said Mr Ahmed.
The Somali President’s trip coincided with the return from Nairobi of Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, after signing a security pact with the Kenyan government. According to the agreement reached in Nairobi, the two governments are to jointly fight the Al-Shabaab militants in southern Somalia.
Uganda and Burundi are the only countries that have contributed peacekeepers to the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom), with the former having provided the bigger contingent.
While the presidential delegation was still at Mogadishu’s Aden Abdulle International Airport, hundreds of trained Somali soldiers returned from Uganda. At the same time, an equally large group of cadets were leaving for Uganda for training.
Somali rebels claim attack on Kenyan forces
01 Nov – Source: Daily Nation, AFP – 170 words
Somalia’s Islamist rebels said Tuesday they attacked a convoy of Kenyan troops in the south of the war-torn country and caused casualties. Regional Al-Shabaab commander Sheik Mohamed Ibrahim and witnesses said the ambush occurred between the villages of Taabto and Dobley.
“We ambushed the enemy convoy this afternoon and inflicted heavy casualties on them. The mujahideen fighters destroyed several of the military trucks in the convoy,” Ibrahim said. The Kenyan military spokesman could not be reached to confirm the insurgents’ claim.
“We heard heavy gunfire and RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades) fired but we don’t know the casualties,” an elder in Taabto, Abdirahman Osman, told AFP. “The Kenyan troops often use that road which links Dobley and Taabto but the firefight this afternoon was very intense.”
Kenyan soldiers and tanks rolled into Shabaab-controlled southern Somalia some two weeks ago to fight the insurgents and curtail their ability to launch cross-border attacks. Kenyan authorities accuse the Al-Qaeda-linked Shabaab of recent kidnappings of foreigners and incursion on its territory, a charge the rebels deny.
RDF dismisses talk of Somalia deployment
02 Nov – Source: The New Times – 422 words
Rwanda has no plans to deploy troops in Somalia, contrary to recent reports in sections of the media, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence and Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) has said. Col. Joseph Nzabamwita told The New Times, last evening, that Kigali fully backs the current African Union-led peace efforts in the Horn of African nation, but was ‘currently pre-occupied with other commitments elsewhere.’
“At the moment, we maintain up to 3,200 peacekeepers in Darfur, and are planning to deploy more officers and men in South Sudan before the end of the year,” Col. Nzabamwita said by telephone. He disclosed that Rwanda was preparing to the send 850 troops to South Sudan, under the auspices of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan, as part of the continued international community’s support to the world’s youngest nation.
Some reports had earlier suggested that President Paul Kagame had pledged Rwanda’s direct military intervention in the lawless country, during meetings with regional counterparts, on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (Chogm), which ended in Australia on Sunday.
But the military and defence spokesperson stated that Rwanda was involved in building the capacity of Somali armed forces, saying it had already trained 98 Non-Commissioned Officers from Somalia to help build the country’s capacity to address its security challenges. “When they come here, we take full charge of all the costs.”
“We are ready to continue making our contribution in that regard (capacity building), but have also made it clear that we are unable to get involved through military deployment due to our commitments in the Sudans,” said Col. Nzabamwita. “
http://www.newtimes.co.rw/
Thuraya and Al Aan TV partner to spotlight famine-stricken Somalia
02 Nov – Source: Emirates News Agency – 235 words
Thuraya and Al Aan TV, the UAE-based TV channel, have joined forces to spotlight the plight of famine-stricken area of Somalia and re-focus international attention on Somali community. About 60 percent of the people in Somalia have been inaccessible to aid, and those are just the people in temporary camps.
“We have a strong partnership with Al Aan TV, whom we openly admire for their continued efforts to highlight human interest stories. Somalia is a vast, barren country with a heart-breaking story to tell, we wanted to ensure Al Aan had the means to get the story out. Our Thuraya IP solution enables them to broadcast live from even the most remote location and provides the platform to re-focus international attention on Somali community,” said Thuraya’s Vice President, Corporate ‘&’ Marketing Communications, Ebrahim K. Ebrahim.
On a similar note Ms. Nisreen Sadek, News Projects Manager of Al Aan TV said, “We are committed to proving leading and breaking news to our audience, we ensure that we are well-geared to stream stories from all parts of the globe and that is why we selected Thuraya IP as our main satellite broadband solution.
The compact, portable and user-friendly solution will enable us to show the reality on the ground in Somalia without delay to our studios, in the hope of bringing attention to our audience so that they participate in saving the lives of those in Somalia.”
INTERNATIONAL MEDIA
UN envoy calls for African peacekeeping force to reach full strength
01 Nov – Source: UN News Centre – 295 words
The United Nations envoy for Somalia has stressed the need to bring the strength of the African Union peacekeeping force in the Horn of Africa country to the 12,000 troops mandated by the Security Council, adding that the force also needs the capacity to deal with unconventional tactics of war.
Augustine Mahiga, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, told a news conference in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, yesterday that Al Shabaab insurgents, who are opposed to Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG), were increasingly resorting to unconventional warfare, especially the use of bombs and other explosives to carry out acts of terrorism against civilians.
“In this last effort to clear Al Shabaab in north-eastern corner of the city [Mogadishu], we are witnessing a combination” of conventional warfare methods and terrorist attacks, said Mr. Mahiga. “It is, of course, quite a challenge and in a sense an important reminder to the troop-contributing countries and to the international community that we must expedite the deployment of the remaining 3,000 troops which have been authorized by the Security Council.
“There is the need for reorientation of the fighting forces of AMISOM [African Mission in Somalia] to deal with these unconventional methods of warfare,” he said. Asked about the presence of Kenya troops in Somalia, Mr. Mahiga said the decision to deploy Kenyan forces was a bilateral one between the two countries and was in no way related to the deployment of AMISOM, which has a Security Council mandate.
There are currently 9,000 AMISOM troops in Somalia, including a police element – all of them from Uganda and Burundi, according to Mr. Mahiga. He said there were indications that Djibouti and Sierra Leone could provide some of the 3,000 soldiers required to bring the peacekeeping force to its authorized maximum strength.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/
Kenyan military says it plans to attack 10 towns in Somalia ‘continuously’
02 Nov – Source: bloomberg – 437 words
Kenya’s military said it plans to “continuously” attack 10 towns in Somalia including Baidoa, where it said two unidentified aircraft delivered weapons to the al Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab group. Other towns that are being targeted include Baidoa Afgoye, Afmadow and the port city of Kismayo, Major Emmanuel Chirchir, spokesman for the Kenya Defence Forces, said in statements on his Twitter account.
“The Kenya Defence Forces urges anyone with relatives and friends in the 10 towns to advise them accordingly,” he said. “Operation Linda Nchi is on course to advance to Kismayo on schedule.” Operation Linda Nchi, which means ‘Protect the Nation’ in the Swahili language, began on Oct. 16 when Kenyan forces started an incursion into Somalia to combat al-Shabaab rebels it accuses of kidnapping tourists and aid workers in Kenya. Al- Shabaab denied the allegations and threatened to carry out reprisal attacks.
Kenya and Somalia’s prime ministers on Oct. 31 called for a blockade of Kismayo, the biggest port south of Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, which serves as the main supply route for the al-Shabaab militia. Chirchir said last month Kenyan forces are “willing to celebrate Christmas” in Kismayo if it takes that long to arrive there. The army hasn’t provided any other timelines for its planned advance.
The two aircraft that landed in Baidoa on Oct. 29 may have originated in Eritrea, the Nairobi-based Standard newspaper reported today, citing unidentified websites in Somalia that quoted al-Shabaab. Baidoa, 224 kilometers (139 miles) northwest of Mogadishu, is also a key supply route used by the militia, the newspaper said.
Eritrea may be providing financial and logistical support to armed opposition groups in Somalia, along with countries including Uganda, Djibouti and Ethiopia, according to a July report by the United Nations Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea.
Kenya: We will destroy weapons flown into Somalia
02 Nov – Source: AP – 108 words
A military spokesman says fighter aircraft will destroy weapons Kenya says were flown into Somalia on two planes and delivered to Islamist militants.
Kenya’s military on Tuesday said it had reliable information that two aircraft landed in the Somali town of Baidoa with weapons on board intended for al-Shabab militants. Maj. Emmanuel Chirchir said on Wednesday that Kenyan military planes would target and attack those weapons so they cannot be used.
Chirchir has warned that the Kenyan military will attack 10 Somali towns where it believes al-Shabab has a presence and advised civilians to stay away from al-Shabaab camps. Kenyan forces moved into Somalia in mid-October to attack insurgents.
Turkey opens embassy in Somali capital
79 Oct – Source: World Bulletin – 79 words
Turkey’s embassy in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, has opened, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. The ministry said the embassy opened to help relief efforts from the most devastating drought and famine in Somalia in over 60 years. “The Turkish Embassy in Mogadishu will coordinate ongoing and future aid efforts in Somalia. Our embassy went fully operational on Tuesday after the arrival of our Ambassador Kani Torun and the accompanying diplomatic staff,” the ministry said.
http://www.worldbulletin.net/?
Fertile territory for Al Shabaab in chaos of Somalia
01 Nov – Source: CNN News – 183 words
Al Shabaab, which has connections to al Qaeda, is a militant Islamist group that controls much of southern Somalia and is active around the capital, Somalia. It has waged an insurgency against the weak Transitional Federal Government since 2007.
Somalia has been without any functioning government since 1991 — perfect territory for different militia and factions to fight over the bones of the old state. Al Shabaab (which means “the youth” in Somali) emerged in about 2004. Its gunmen were involved in a series of assassinations of Somalis who had connections to the West. Al Shabaab began prospering when the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) seized the capital Mogadishu and much of central Somalia in 2006.
After defeating a coalition of warlords backed by the United States, the ICU brought Shariah-style justice to the capital, temporarily halting the anarchy in the city. Many people in the capital welcomed the greater security that the ICU brought, thanks in part to the effective fighting skills of several hundred Al Shabaab fighters.
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/
Kenya warns of air strikes across southern and central Somalia
02 Nov – Source: Guardian – 410 words
Kenyan forces plan to carry out air strikes on Islamist rebel camps across southern and central Somalia to destroy weapons that the military says were flown into the anarchic Horn of Africa country in the past two days.
Military spokesman Major Emmanuel Chirchir used Twitter to warn residents of 10 towns across Somalia that they would be “under attack continuously”. He told the Guardian that residents should stay away from al-Shabaab camps in the towns because Kenyan forces, which crossed the border into neighbouring Somalia in mid-October to battle the militants, would be attacking soon.
The locations include the port town of Kismayo, an al-Shabaab stronghold, Baidoa, Afmadow and Afgoye, near the capital Mogadishu. Chirchir said two consignments of weapons had been flown into Baidoa, 170 miles north-west of Mogadishu, on Monday and Tuesday.
He said he did not know where the weapons came from but that they were destined for the southern frontline where Kenyan and Somali government forces, as well as allied militias, are trying to push al-Shabaab forces from the territory they control.
“If it is confirmed that a particular (al-Shabaab) camp has received those weapons, we’ll get there,” he said. “We are asking the people of Somalia to avoid being close to al-Shabaab, especially the camps,” he said.
Several civilians were killed on Sunday during a Kenyan air strike on the town of Jilib in southern Somalia. The Kenyan military said the deaths were caused when rebels drove a vehicle with an anti-aircraft gun, which had been hit in the bombardment, into a camp for displaced people where it exploded. An investigation is underway.
Kenya wants to push al-Shabaab, which is linked to al-Qaeda and is fighting the weak Somali government, away from its borders. It blames the militants for a series of kidnappings and cross-border incursions that threaten its security and lucrative tourism industry.
Some of the towns listed by Chirchir are north of the area where Kenyan forces are advancing. Chirchir said Kenyan forces would co-ordinate their actions with the 9,000-strong African Union Amisom force stationed in Mogadishu.
A strategic Kenyan objective is to capture Kismayo, which is a key supply route and source of funds for the rebels. Chirchir said Kenyan troops had crossed through Burgavo, a town south of Kismayo. Kenya and Somalia have called on the international community to provide logistical and financial support to blockade the port as they attempt to force al-Shabaab out.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
CULTURE / EDITORIAL / BLOGS / OPINION
Kenya’s blundering mission in Somalia
02 Nov – Source: al Jazeera – 1,800 words
Kenya’s surprisingly brave march into southern Somalia, which began in mid-October, brings to mind the analogy of Kenya as a clumsy, overgrown, weak-muscled 17-year-old stumbling onto a rainy, muddy battlefield for the very first time. Weighed down by his kalashnikov and ego, he fiddles about to get his aim right, but his younger, more agile, bloodthirsty opponent is already waiting with his weapon cocked and ready to fire.
Until now, independent Kenya had never been to war or led a military intervention into another state. After 20 years of deftly avoiding resurrecting old neighbourly grudges and becoming directly involved in Somalia’s war, the Kenyan government finally decided to take the plunge.
On October 16, an estimated 3,000 Kenyan troops marched into Somalia to battle with the ‘terrorist’ and tourist menace that is al-Shabaab. On a mission to protect the nation’s “territorial intergrity”, Kenyan forces are attempting to secure the northern border with Somalia, an unstable region where the killing and abduction of Western tourists, aid workers, and Kenyans has made the news. Allegedly the work of al-Shabaab, the escalation in murder of Westerners has been an important catalyst, but not the sole reason for this armed intervention.
From providing intelligence support to recruiting and training Somali soldiers – even paying warlords to create a buffer zone between itself and its warring neighbour – Kenya has long sought to protect itself from Somalia’s mortars and missiles. So, too, has Ethiopia.
Since 1996, Ethiopia has tried to create a large safety belt to contain Somalia’s fighting and to block neighbouring Eritrea from gaining more ground in its border war with Ethiopia. Using Somalia’s crisis to wage its own proxy wars, Eritrea allegedly funds and arms anti-Ethiopian Somali Sufi factions while Ethiopia reportedly arms pro-Somali government militias. Currently, Ethiopian troops occasionally move in and out of southern Somalia’s Gedo region, a buffer zone. The troops are trying to contain the fighting between Ethiopian rebel separatist movements and Sufi Somali factions against Somalia’s interim government and Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s attempt at securing a safe space has largely resulted in propping up proxy militias, while Kenya’s dream of constructing a similar region has been focused on recruiting and dispatching Somali troops to man the border region. More concretely, support has been given to Somalia’s latest independent breakaway, Azania (also known as Jubaland).
The Juba Valley is home to 1.3 million people whose clans have clashed with each other, the Somali army and al-Shabaab insurgents. Jubaland is also the operational base of a separatist rebel movement, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, whose calls for the secession of the Ogaden region in Ethiopia have led to violent confrontations with the Ethiopian army. A 2010 WikiLeaks cable describes the Ethiopian government as “not enthusiastic about Kenya’s Jubaland initiative, but is sharing intelligence with Kenya and hoping for success”.
Abdi Gandhi, a professor and former defence minister who is currently the president of Azania, promised Kenya to “liberate Jubaland of extremists”, but has not quite made it to his office yet. According to Reuters news agency, Gandhi spends most of his time in Nairobi, Kenya’s capital. Most of the progress made on Jubaland’s terrorist frontiers in recent months has been due to the efforts of the Somali and Kenyan national armies.
A hotbed of inter-clan tension, violent separatism and anti-foreign sentiment, Kenya’s intervention into Jubaland seriously risks stoking the fires of ethnic Somali nationalism. Very real sentiments of pan-Somali solidarity exist among ethnic Somalis in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya’s North Eastern Province. A call to arms could unite Islamist insurgents with nationalist clans to push out foreign forces.
Already opposed to Azania’s partial autonomy, Somalia’s President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed openly disapproved of Kenyan boots on the ground. Al-Shabaab leaders have called for bombings: “The Kenyan Mujahideen who were trained by Osama in Afghanistan, stop throwing grenades at buses. We need a huge blow against Kenya. Hand grenades hurled can harm them, but we want huge blasts,” urged Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab, an Islamist rebel group spokesman to crowds gathered in Elasha, near Mogadishu.
Commenting on Kenya’s intervention, last week, former US ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn said the best scenario would be for Kibaki’s forces to secure the towns and “try to replace al-Shabaab with Somali forces friendly to Kenya”. It’s a valid expectation given that Mogadishu finally fell to Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces this past August. But, in classic al-Shabaab style, Mogadishu experienced a delayed, heavy retaliation in recent weeks, which cost Burundi’s peacekeeping force over 60 lives.
History also shows that far superior armies have failed against al-Shabaab. In early November 1993, American and UN peacekeepers were humiliatingly defeated in a two-day bloody battle against Somali militiamen. Years later, Ethiopia tried too, and licked the same bitter wounds of defeat.
In 2006, a US-backed Ethiopian army marched into the Somali capital, triumphed over the original al-Shabaab, and handed Mogadishu over to the TFG. But local clansmen and clerics irked by Ethiopia’s invasion joined forces with the militant wing of the overthrown Islamic Courts Union, a collective of Sharia courts which formed a “rebel government” that, until Ethiopia troops’ arrival, had presided over southern Somalia, including Mogadishu. Driven by a mix of nationalist-jihadist sentiment, the new al-Shabaab marched into the capital and took back the city from one of Africa’s biggest and best-trained armies.
Militarily, Kenya is far weaker than Ethiopia. President Mwai Kibaki’s government does not have the budget for a lengthy fight as Zenawi did. After days of keeping up the official line: “The United States is not participating in Kenya’s current operation in Somalia,” the US alongside France are finally partners in Operation Linda Nchi (Operation Protect the Nation), as it’s officially known. The assistance is a welcome boost for the Kenyans, but whether air strikes and logistical support will be enough to defeat fervent anti-Western nationalists and extremists is another matter entirely.
http://english.aljazeera.net/