August 7, 2015 | Daily Monitoring Report
Ministerial “Reshuffle” Worrying All
07 August – Source: Hiiraan Online – 522 Words
The Somali Federal Government will undertake another cabinet reshuffle soon according to sources. For a month before the High Level Partnership Forum meeting in Mogadishu last week there were speculations that the process of negotiating new posts between the President and PM was underway. Today, sources close to both informed Hiiraan Online that this process is indeed taking place and is nearing an end.“I don’t know if it is a reshuffle but certain Ministers will be sacked and their replacements promoted,” said a political insider who did not want to be named. “The process is definitely going on and some ministers will be shocked. Another adviser at the PM’s office who did not want to be named also said, “I don’t think anyone knows which ministers are been targeted but there are around 4-6 Minister’s been considered for replacement soon.”
Talk of reshuffle coming from Villa Somalia compound and reached the streets of the capital and other parts of Somalia. In a popular Mogadishu cafe, students and public sector professionals were discussing which minister’s they believe will be out of office soon. On their list were the Minister of Planning and Finance among others.“I guess we don’t know until it happens but the rumours across town and in the media is that the reshuffle is on and about 6 ministers will be replaced,” said Ahmed Ali a medical student in Mogadishu. The rumours of reshuffle this close to the completion of the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mahamoud’s term in 2016 is worrying for many political observers, business leaders and the Somali public.
Many expressed their concerns to Hiiraan online but did not want to go on the record given that the reshuffle talks had yet to be confirmed by the Government officially. “Somalia will be always known for government reshuffle. A Minister comes, he works for 6 months and he is fighting for his job after that. How can we achieve anything in Somalia in this way?” said Mohamed Nur, a business owner in downtown Mogadishu. All approached for this article agreed that the reasons behind the reshuffle were not clear. However, as usual, they suspected it is political.“I think both the president and PM are looking for places for those who lost out in the state formation process in Galmudug and also rewarding a few friends too,” said a political analyst who did not want to be named. “This is like the 4th reshuffle of important ministers in 4 years. Is this Government serious about achieving anything?”
“Whatever the reason we all know a Somali Minister’s job is just a summer job. If any of them thought it was permanent they will be disappointed after this reshuffle,” added Jama Abdi, a NGO project management officer in Garowe who was spending time in Mogadishu with family. Whether the reshuffle of ministers will take place has yet to be confirmed by the government. However, if it does happen it will surely have wide ranging implications for the achievements of many of its six pillar goals in the short time remaining until the end of this administration’s mandate.
Key Headlines
- Ministerial “Reshuffle” Worrying All (Hiiraan Online)
- IGAD Holds Round Table Meeting For Jubbaland Administration And Opposition Leaders (Wacaal Media)
- Aid Groups Highlight Global Acute Malnutrition In Somalia (Somali Update)
- Coalition Government A Likely Scenario As Powerful Premier Endorsed In New 2016 Roadmap(Goobjoog News)
- AU Calls For More Funding For Peacekeeping Mission In Somalia (China.org)
- A National Workshop On Somalia’s Human Rights Record Opened In Mogadishu (Cihan.com)
- Australians Urged To Develop Taste For Camel Meat (ABC.net)
- AU To Kenya: Stop Politicising Issue On KDF In Somalia (Tuko.co)
- Somalia’s Incredible Shrinking Election (Foreign Policy)
NATIONAL MEDIA
IGAD Holds Round Table Meeting For Jubbaland Administration And Opposition Leaders
07 August – Source: Wacaal Media – 64 Words
The regional body IGAD has organized several round table meetings between the Interim Jubbaland Administration and local opposition leaders most of whom hail from the Sade Darood clan. Wacaal media has obtained exclusive photos of the meetings held over the past two days in Gedo region. Preliminary agreements will be released today, sources say.
Aid Groups Highlight Global Acute Malnutrition In Somalia
07 August – Source: Somali Update – 154 Words
According to the health and aid agencies working in Somalia, malnutrition rates remain high among internally displaced people (IDP) as the recent assessments indicate critical levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) above 15 per cent in five settlements namely; Baidoa, Dhobley, Doloow, Gaalkacyo and Garowe. The malnutrition rates among the displaced in Dhusamareeb, Kismayo and Mogadishu also remain serious with a GAM between 10 and 15 per cent. With critical levels of malnutrition prevailing among the displaced, nutrition activities need to be scaled up. The humanitarian situation in Somalia remains fragile. According to FAO’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) monitoring, food security conditions for agriculture dependent livelihoods are likely to deteriorate due to below average harvest outlook. However, pastoral dependent areas may see modest improvements following recent rains that improved pasture and water availability. A total of 3 million people need humanitarian and livelihood assistance including 731,000 in emergency and crisis.
Coalition Government A Likely Scenario As Powerful Premier Endorsed In New 2016 Roadmap
06 August – Source: Goobjoog News – 577 Words
Somalia could for the first time in its history be governed by a coalition government should a proposal exclusively seen by Goobjoog News which also seeks to retain the controversial 4.5 clan formula is accepted by all stakeholders. The proposal contained in the document- Enhanced Legitimacy: Hybrid Option which provides the roadmap for the 2016 polls after the government dispensed with the ‘one person, one vote’ proposes a raft of measures and guidelines to ‘sustain the domestic and international legitimacy of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)’. The drafters of the document propose a parliamentary system of government which will give legitimacy and authority to political parties in deciding who becomes the president of the country. This is a departure from earlier practices including in 2012 when traditional elders played the all important role of deciding the country’s leadership. The proposal further seeks to water down the powers of the president by creating an Executive Premier and a president with limited powers. This clause could be a likely point of contention given the history of a country which has seen the president and prime minister perennially at loggerheads over power struggles.
The country will be zoned into 7 constituencies based on the distribution of the current members of parliament. Each MP will therefore have to declare his/her geographic constituency out of either Puntland, Interim Jubba Administration, Interim South West Administration, Galmudug, Benadir, Somaliland or Hiiraan/Shabeelle). Despite their relegation to the rear, elders will be instrumental in choosing the electorate; with each MP expected to be elected from 100 voters in the order of the 4.5 clan system. The 4.5 clan system, which has been disputed and seen as discriminatory to smaller clans works on the understanding that the four major clans in Somalia are billed on a factor of 1 and the remaining smaller clans are lumped together as half, thus the 4.5. Based on this, there will be a total of 27,500 voters who will vote not for an individual MP but for the political party of choice, an MP representing a party. In total there will be 6 voting locations namely, Mogadishu, Baidoa, Kismaayo, Garowe, Dhuusamarreeb/Adaado and Beledweyn/Jowhar. Existing state legislative bodies or state assemblies will endorse the electorate who will then be certified to vote. The assemblies as contemplated are, Puntland, Interim Jubba Administration, Interim South West Administration, Galmudug Administration and Benadir region. Benadir electorate will be endorsed by the Benadir City Council.The proposal notes that MPs will be selected from party lists based on votes garnered by each party meaning that the party with the majority votes will command a high number of representation but based on the 4.5 clan formula.
These MPs will therefore elect the president and the party that wins 50% plus 1 vote (or 13,751) automatically gets the right to form a government upon the request of the president elect. Failure to achieve this threshold results in a hung parliament hence two or more parties have to put heads together to form a coalition government. The cabinet has also said this election formula will be exclusive for 2016 polls upon which the country will further deliberate on a more inclusive and democratic process. It says the proposed formula is a ‘selection-election’ process which seeks to bring together all actors including parliament, the National Independent Electoral Commission, regional administrations and clan elders.
INTERNATIONAL MEDIA
AU Calls For More Funding For Peacekeeping Mission In Somalia
07 August – Source: China.Org – 189 Words
The African Union on Thursday appealed to the international community for more financial assistance to its peacekeeping mission in Somalia.The Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for Somalia, Maman Sidikou, told journalists in Nairobi that the operations of the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISON) are costly and require more international aid.”We need more resources to motivate the soldiers and provide logistical support to enable our troops to wage a successful war against the militants,” Sidikou said.
The AMISOM is fighting alongside the Somali forces against Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia. The AU envoy said the joint forces were “performing very well” in their operations. Al-Shabaab has continued to wage attacks against the Somali government though it has lost most of its strongholds.Last month, its members carried out a car bombing on a luxurious hotel in the capital Mogadishu that killed 15 people — its latest attack in the country. The AMISOM this week announced that it would offer training to 150 officers of the Somali police force who will be deployed to the newly retaken areas in central Somalia.
A National Workshop On Somalia’s Human Rights Record Opened In Mogadishu
07 August – Source: Cihan.com – 340 Words
A national consultative workshop on Somalia’s human rights record opened in Mogadishu on Monday (3 Aug), a few months before Somalia is due for peer review. The Universal Periodic Review (UPR) is a process through which countries’ human rights situation and is assessed by the UN Human Rights Council every four years. Somalia will be peer reviewed in January to February 2016. Next year’s Universal Periodic Review will be Somalia’s second, the first review having been conducted in 2011, where the country received 155 recommendations in the outcome report from the UN Human Rights Council.
Organized by the Ministry of Women and Human Rights, with support from the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), the consultative workshop brings together top officials of the Federal Government of Somalia, delegates from the Federal States and members of the civil society. In her opening remarks, the Minister of Women and Human Rights Zahra Ali Samantar urged workshop participants to take the consultations seriously. She said, “The Ministry of Women and Human Rights prioritized the gathering of information that will be used to respond to the recommendations. To address the recommendations it is necessary that all federal states, regional administrations and every government official put their recommendations forward.
The Ministry also emphasizes that every ministry in the federal government of Somalia should have a focal point that will work on the Universal Periodic Review report.” The Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Somalia (SRSG), Nicholas Kay said the process provided an opportunity for participants to highlight achievements made and challenges faced by the country over the last five years. “It is really a great pleasure to be with you today at the first consultative workshop on the Universal Periodic Review for the preparation of Somalia’s national report. I commend the Federal Government and the Somalis take holders for their commitment to the Universal Periodic Review process and the ministry of Women and Human Rights for leading the process,” said Kay.
Australians Urged To Develop Taste For Camel Meat
07 August – Source: ABC.net – 672 Words
Camels are worth “more than gold” and it’s only a matter of time before the rest of the country catches on to the outback game meat, according to Australia’s North African community. The poster is intriguing: “Camel meat now here”. People from the local Somali community flow in and out of the halal butcher’s shop, located in Flemington, north-west of Melbourne’s CBD. Upon walking into an aroma of spices and raw meat, visitors are warmly welcomed by owner Abukar Hersi, who proudly boasts about what he describes as Australia’s best-kept culinary secret. “It’s one of the best things you can have — it’s a very rich meat, high in protein,” he said. “We have some Australians coming in saying ‘I’d like to have a try’, we’ve had MasterChef buy from us, so it’s getting popular now. “I think when Australians realise, we will see camel meat in every butcher and supermarket.” Mr Hersi is originally from Somalia, where his father was also a butcher. There, those who can afford to eat camel meat and drink camel milk do so every day. “In Somali culture the camel is everything, it’s more than gold,” he said.
“When you want to get married you have to give the best camels to the family. We’re talking about 100 camels. “If there is fighting or a problem, to make conversation, you give a camel.” At $12.99 per kilo, one whole camel feeds his customer base for a month. One leg alone can weigh 70kg. “We get the leg whole, the humps, the heart, we sell the liver, the kidney. We use the whole thing,” he said. “The shoulder is the best part, because the camel uses it less so it is softer.” Mr Hersi has just gone through his busiest period of the year, Ramadan, which is comparable to the Christmas season for most other Australian butchers. During Islamic holy occasions, he orders an extra four camels to keep up with demand. They are slaughtered at an abattoir in Alice Springs before being boxed and sold by a wholesaler to domestic and international markets. More than 1 million wild camels are estimated to be roaming Australia’s deserts, covering 3.3 million square kilometres. News of camel culls in the Australian outback has driven demand from the Middle East and African countries, some of which view camel meat as a delicacy. “People in the Middle East see Australia killing camels and cannot believe it,” Mr Hersi said. “There is a lot of interest.”
AU To Kenya: Stop Politicising Issue On KDF In Somalia
06 August – Source: Tuko.co – 325 Words
Following recent conflicting calls by government and opposition leaders on Kenya Defense Forces KDF in Somalia, Kenya has been warned against making this a political affair. The African Union Special Representative for Somalia and Head of AMISOM, Ambassador Maman Sidikou said that Kenyan leaders should not play politics when it comes to the issue of security. Speaking in Nairobi, Sidikou said that the Kenyan government as well as the opposition should seek to support KDF who are fighting in Somalia as part of the African Union Mission In Somalia (AMISOM).
“Let us not mix issues. When your boys and girls are fighting abroad, a country should strengthen them. KDF are not in Somalia for the current regime or for the opposition; but for Kenya, the region, and Africa as a whole,” said Sidikou, during a press briefing at Nairobi’s Stanley Hotel. The AU leader added that it was naive to think that Kenya will be shielded from Al-Shabaab attacks when its troops withdraw from Somalia. “If we leave, they will follow us, that is if they are not here already. This is because they have an agenda. We should stay in Somalia and unite with the rest of Africa to weaken them, before it is safe for us to come back home,” he noted, adding that what KDF needs now is support for “the wonderful job they are doing” and not discouragement from all the politicking around the issue.
The ambassador said that such a sensitive process should be done systematically rather than hurriedly, to avoid “making mistakes.” In April 2015, Opposition leader Raila Odinga said that KDF should pull out of Somalia and come back home to guard our borders, following increasing Al-Shabaab attacks in the country. Two months later, President Uhuru Kenyatta said that KDF would continue staying in Somalia until the nation that hopes to go to polls in September 2016 stabilizes.
OPINION, ANALYSIS, AND CULTURE
“This time around we want to change and make the next parliament, a parliament that has been elected by a bigger number of citizens.”
Somalia’s Incredible Shrinking Election
06 August – Source: Foreign Policy – 1, 696 Words
It has been nearly half a century since Somalis voted in a genuine popular election. During that time, the troubled wedge of a nation in East Africa has tried “scientific socialism,” clanism, and radical Islamism as it veered from a model of post-independence democracy to archetypal failed state. Each governing ideology had its own way of disenfranchising the masses, and each added a new layer of animosity to a conflict that, over three decades, triggered two famines and scattered more than a million Somalis across the globe. But when a quiet academic named Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was sworn in as president in 2012, it was taken as a sign that Somalia was finally on the road to peace. Elected by the parliament, which in turn was selected by a group of 135 clan elders, Mohamud vowed to complete the country’s transition to democracy by 2016. The next president of Somalia, he pledged in September 2013, would be elected through a process of “one person, one vote.”
That promise, which reflected an agreement with international donors that many experts saw as overly ambitious, was finally broken last week when Mohamud officially ruled out the possibility of popular elections next year. A statement issued by the president’s office on July 30 cited insecurity as the main inhibiting factor. In a wide-ranging interview with Foreign Policy in June, however, the Somali president went into greater detail about his misgivings about a popular vote. “Security might be one factor. But for me, there is a much bigger and wider concern I have for the election. We don’t want the election to create new conflict, new division, within the society, which is the experience of many post-conflict environments. We don’t want elections to create winners and losers. We don’t want elections to create some sort of ‘winner takes all.’ This time around, Somalia is still fragile,” he said.
The president was clear in the interview that he is not seeking an extension of his mandate, as some of his critics charge. Instead, he favored an incremental approach that does not bring Somalia back to “square one” — the same system of indirect elections based on the 135 elders — but that also does not “scratch the past wounds” by advancing too quickly toward competitive elections. “If today, Somalia is not possible with ‘one-person, one-vote’ ballot boxes all over the country. If this is not possible today, we should not stay where we are. We have to transition to something closer to that, so that next time we can reach that easily,” he said. “Based on that now, anything other than extension and the 135 elders, or any number of elders, is an election for us.” Security is certainly a concern going into 2016. Somalia faces a potent insurgency from al-Shabab, an al Qaeda-linked group that once controlled much of the south-central portion of the country. African Union forces, fighting alongside the Somali National Army, have succeeded in pushing the insurgents out of most major cities. But the conflict has settled into a stalemate in recent years, with militants continuing to carry out asymmetric attacks against government and African Union targets, as well as terrorist attacks across East Africa. On July 26, al-Shabab claimed responsibility for a bombing that killed 15 people at one of Somalia’s premier hotels, located just yards from the heavily fortified airport in Mogadishu.
In walking back his pledge to hold nationwide elections, the president caught few close Somalia watchers by surprise. Buffeted by corruption scandals and paralyzed by political infighting, Mohamud’s government has made little progress laying the groundwork for a vote. A planned permanent constitution, which would spell out the electoral process, has yet to be drafted; a system for registering voters has yet to be devised; and long-standing issues with Puntland and other semi-autonomous regions that look askance at central government control still need to be resolved. In one sense, acknowledgment that all of this cannot be achieved in less than 18 months highlights the difficulty of meeting externally imposed deadlines. Perhaps the most common descriptor used by U.N. and Western diplomats in Mogadishu is “Somali-led.” The constitution-drafting, state-building, and electoral processes are all said to be “Somali-led.” But like the troops who keep the government from being overrun, the schedule for achieving these goals did not originate inside Somalia. “These deadlines tend to come from the international community,” said Justin Marozzi, a former advisor to the Somali president. “They can be wholly unrealistic, and not suited to the Somali political culture of consensus building and negotiation over a long time. But because the international community holds the purse strings, it tends to dictate the timetable, which is often unrealistic.”
In another sense, however, the abandonment of “one man, one vote” speaks to a broader lowering of expectations on the part of the international community. Whereas Nicholas Kay, the special representative of the U.N. secretary-general for Somalia, once told a gathering of Somali politicians that failure to hold an election would mean “the shattering of the hopes and dreams of millions of Somalis,” he has since taken to downplaying the importance of a popular vote. If the “hugely ambitious” electoral checklist is not completed by 2016, he told the Times of London in April, “I don’t think anybody will judge that as a failure.” Yet there are more than a few Somalis who see the decision to forego elections as selling their country short. Worse, they say, a watered down electoral exercise could allow people close to the current president to remain in power. “Anyone who says elections are impossible is listening to people who want the status quo maintained,” said former Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed, whose coalition of parties and politicians is pushing for increased popular participation in 2016. “The international community is not serious about this, I think, because they are talking with people who do not want to have elections.” Ahmed resigned in December 2014, after a prolonged standoff with President Mohamud over cabinet appointments that crippled the government and prompted the U.S. government to boycott a donor conference on Somalia in Copenhagen. He was the second prime minster to resign in the midst of a political crisis in a little more than a year.
The former premier was coy about his political ambitions for 2016, but he is clear about the need for a more inclusive selection process this time around. “Why elections cannot happen in Somalia when elections happen in Afghanistan?” he asked in an interview with FP in Nairobi in June. “Or elections cannot happen in Somalia when elections happen in Iraq, in Sierra Leone, in Ivory Coast, all over the world where they have the same problems as we have?” Now that the president has ruled out a genuine plebiscite, it remains to be seen how far the government will stray from the elders-based system. In the interview, Mohamud spoke of “enhancing the legitimacy” of the parliament by expanding the number of electors beyond the original 135 elders. That system, he noted, is based on a power sharing scheme known as the “4.5 formula,” according to which an equal number of parliamentary seats go to the four most powerful clan-families, and half — or “0.5” times — as many seats are divided among the remaining minority clans and ethnic groups. This complicated agreement has succeeded in keeping the most dangerous clan rivalries in check, but is seen by many Somalis as deeply unfair. “The way this 4.5 system is structured, the ‘0.5’ are actually a majority, more so than the four big tribes,” said Fadumo Dayib, one of more than a dozen declared candidates in the yet-to-be-designed 2016 presidential contest. “This is about holding onto power. It’s about keeping this elite in place.”
The president did not specify whether an expanded electorate would be based on this same “4.5 formula.” Instead, he skirted the issue, saying, “This time around we want to change and make the next parliament, a parliament that has been elected by a bigger number of citizens.” Already, however, many of the proposals being bandied about retain elements of the “4.5” formula. One such plan, put forward by former U.N. Monitoring Group for Somalia and Eritrea chief Matt Bryden, calls for the establishment of a new upper house of parliament composed of representatives of the nascent federal member states (the same donor pact that calls for elections in 2016 also lays out a plan for federating the country). The new upper house, which would elect the president in a joint vote with the lower house, should address “the need for regional representation while at the same time maintaining a degree of equilibrium between Somalia’s major clans in line with the ‘4.5 Formula,’” Bryden writes. “Even if, from a technical perspective, the preparations for elections could be completed in time, it would be reckless to rush such a sensitive and potentially divisive process,” writes Bryden. A hasty departure from the “4.5 formula,” in his view, would inevitably leave “some communities feeling disenfranchised and disaffected.” From the perspective of outside candidates like Dayib, who is one of three female candidates to jump into the 2016 race, the abundance of caution exercised by analysts like Bryden will only ensure that old patterns of corruption and predatory politics stay unchallenged. “Once you go back to this 4.5, you’re going to talk about money. It’s about money; it’s about rigging. It’s a system based on injustice,” she said in a telephone interview from Helsinki. “When they look at me, they are not going to ask me, ‘What do you have to offer Somalia?’ They will look at me and ask, ‘What do you have to offer me?’”
TOP TWEETS
@SomaliaJunkie Bossaso airport runway construction project enters final phase,with surfacing eqpt being offloaded#Puntland #Somalia
@AbdihakimAinte Important background piece by@TyMcCormick on why election in 16 is impossible & who made it impossible http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/
@SomaliaJunkie Discovering picturesque places in Baran, northern #Somalia.A colleague stumbled on quaint town, long drive- #Puntland
@MogadishuImages Maryan Mako the fire lady from#Mogadishu. Fire celebrations have deep cultural roots in#Somalia
@Goobjoognews #Somalia Coalition government a likely scenario in new 2016 roadmap http://goobjoog.com/english/?
IMAGE OF THE DAY
Somali man and women perform traditional “Harvest Dance” dance used to celebrate harvest season.
Photo: Mogadishu Images